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Old 19-02-2012, 13:44   #261   link
Wannes
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soms is het ook gewoon incompetentie hoor.
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bovendien toegegeven dat het niet altijd zonneklaar is waar ik ernstig ben of mezelf wat entertain. maar het onderscheid is er, en ik herken het immer.
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Old 19-02-2012, 14:00   #262   link
Niels
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Ik had die al gezien op den Hollander


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Old 20-02-2012, 00:23   #263   link
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Originally Posted by Takeshi View Post
Ik ben normaal niet iemand die snel in samenzweringen geloof, maar de uitleg van die Duitse econoom dat de VS ze gebruikt als wapen in een financiële oorlog tegen de Euro zal toch enige waarheid bevatten.
Ah ja, daarom dat S&P de rating van de V.S. heeft verlaagd...

Waarom de VS überhaupt een financiële oorlog zou willen voeren tegen de EU mag dien econoom ook eens uitleggen.
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Old 20-02-2012, 13:01   #264   link
Guns
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Originally Posted by Wannes View Post
soms is het ook gewoon incompetentie hoor.
Idd. Indertijd met Japan zaten ze er ook volledig naast. Was dat dan ook een oorlog van de VS tegen Japan ofzo?

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Old 21-02-2012, 15:45   #265   link
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Greece is now officially a ward of the international community. It has no real independence when it comes to fiscal policy any more, and if everything goes according to plan, it’s not going to have any independence for many, many years to come. Here, for instance, is a little of the official Eurogroup statement:
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We therefore invite the Commission to significantly strengthen its Task Force for Greece, in particular through an enhanced and permanent presence on the ground in Greece… The Eurogroup also welcomes the stronger on site-monitoring capacity by the Commission to work in close and continuous cooperation with the Greek government in order to assist the Troika in assessing the conformity of measures that will be taken by the Greek government, thereby ensuring the timely and full implementation of the programme. The Eurogroup also welcomes Greece’s intention to put in place a mechanism that allows better tracing and monitoring of the official borrowing and internally-generated funds destined to service Greece’s debt by, under monitoring of the troika, paying an amount corresponding to the coming quarter’s debt service directly to a segregated account of Greece’s paying agent.
The problem, of course, is that all the observers and “segregated accounts” in the world can’t turn Greece’s economy around when it’s burdened with an overvalued currency and has no ability to implement any kind of stimulus. Quite the opposite: in order to get this deal done, Greece had to find yet another €325 million in “structural expenditure reductions”, and promise a huge amount of front-loaded austerity to boot.

The effect of all this fiscal tightening? Magic growth! A huge amount of heavy lifting, in terms of making the numbers work, is done by the debt sustainability analysis, and specifically the assumptions it makes. Greece is five years into a gruesome recession with the worst effects of austerity yet to hit. But somehow the Eurozone expects that Greece will bounce back to zero real GDP growth in 2013, and positive real GDP growth from 2014 onwards. Here’s the chart:



Note that the downside, here, still looks astonishingly optimistic: where’s all this economic growth meant to be coming from, in a country suffering from massive wage deflation? And under this pretty upbeat downside scenario, Greece gets nowhere near the required 120% debt-to-GDP level by 2020: instead, it only gets to 159%. And to make things worse for the Eurozone, the report explicitly says that under the terms of this deal, “any new debt will be junior to all existing debt” — in other words, there’s no way at all that Greece is going to be able to borrow on the private markets for the foreseeable future, so long as this plan is in place.

As in all bankruptcies, the person providing new money gets to call the shots. And it’s pretty clear that the Troika is going to have to continue providing new money long through 2020 and beyond. Under the optimistic scenario, Greece’s financing need doesn’t drop below 7% of GDP through 2020. Under the more pessimistic scenario, it’s 8.8%. And here’s the kicker: all of that money is being lent to Greece at very low interest rates of just 210bp over the risk-free rate. Much higher, and Greece’s debt dynamics get even worse. But of course even with well-below-market interest rates, Greece is still never going to pay that money back.

The cost of this plan is €130 billion right now, and €170 billion over three years, through the end of 2014; it just continues going up from there, with no end in sight. Remember that total Greek GDP, right now, is only about €220 billion and falling.

Oh, and in case you forgot, this whole plan is also contingent on a bunch of things which are outside the Troika’s control, including a successful bond exchange. The terms of the deal, for Greek bondholders, are tough: there’s a nominal haircut of 53.5%, which means that you get 46.5 cents of new debt for every dollar of existing bonds that you hold. The new debt will be a mixture of EFSF obligations and new Greek bonds; the new Greek debt will pay just 3% interest through 2020, and 3.75% until maturity in 2042.

The plan assumes that 95% of bondholders will accept this deal, which seems optimistic to me. Bondholders are by their nature a fractious and contrarian bunch, and Greece is not saying that it’s going to default on holdouts. As a result, bondholders have to guess what might happen if they fail to tender into the exchange: they might get defaulted on and receive nothing; they might get paid out in full; or they might get defaulted on while being offered, for the second time, the same exchange they’re being offered right now. Some of them, especially the ones holding English-law bonds, might well be tempted to hold on to at least some of their bonds, just to see what happens.

More to the point, the plan assumes that Greece’s politicians will stick to what they’ve agreed, and start selling off huge chunks of their country’s patrimony while at the same time imposing enormous budget cuts. Needless to say, there is no indication that Greece’s politicians are willing or able to do this, nor that Greece’s population will put up with such a thing. It could easily all fall apart within months; the chances of it gliding to success and a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020 have got to be de minimis.

Europe’s politicians know this, of course. But at the very least they’re buying time: this deal might well delay catastrophic capital flight from Greece, and give the Europeans more time to work out how to shore up Portugal if and when that happens. Will they make good use of the time that they’re buying? I hope so. Because once the Greek domino falls, it’s going to take a huge amount of money, statesmanship, and luck to prevent further dominoes from toppling.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...e-greece-plan/
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Old 21-02-2012, 16:04   #266   link
Anton
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Heb het op m'n facebook gepost, en direct een gast die over die zwembaden begint, uiteraard zonder het gelezen te hebben (was dan ook 30 seconden na het posten )
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Old 22-02-2012, 23:00   #267   link
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Old 23-02-2012, 21:34   #268   link
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Welcome to Choose Your Own Troika Program For Greece!

http://crookedtimber.org/2012/02/16/...for-greece-be/
rifl
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Old 23-02-2012, 22:40   #269   link
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heb deze thread nog niet gelezen, beter eens doen
Quote:
and start selling off huge chunks of their country’s patrimony
dat vind ik toch maar zever. dat brengt op korte termijn wel veel geld op, maar op lange termijn zit je dan toch opgescheept met extra kosten?
in Belgie deden ze dat ook, een gebouw verkopen om het vervolgens te huren. dat kan toch op termijn moeilijk goedkoper uitkomen?
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Old 24-02-2012, 12:35   #270   link
Anton
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Inderdaad, en door het feit dat ze in een 'fire sale' moeten verkocht worden brengen die staatseigendommen uiteraard nog amper iets op, kopers weten dat natuurlijk ook.
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Old 04-03-2012, 14:46   #271   link
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-of...egative-salary

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It's Official - Greece Unveils The Negative Salary, And A Whole New Meaning For "Pay To Play"

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2012 09:07 -0500

BLS
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Greece



We thought we had seen it all. It turns out we hadn't. The country that gave the world the alphabet, philosophy, and plates with funny sexually ambiguous drawings on them, has outdone itself again. Because beginning this month some Greeks will have to pay for the privilege of having a job. From the Press Project:

Salary cutbacks (called "unified payroll") for contract workers at the public sector set to be finalized today. Cuts to be valid retroactively since november 2011. Expected result: Up to 64.000 people will work without salary this month, or even be asked to return money. Amongst them 21.000 teachers, 13.000 municipal employees and 30.000 civil servants.

Needless to say the BLS is salivating at the prospect of US workers paying for a job, as this will immediately allow them to double count said person's role in the employed part of the labor force (which incidentally has shrunk by 1% in the time it took to write this), as the money said "worker" pays can be used in the BLS hedonic models to theoretically hire many more people courtesy of fractional reserve lending. Now if only everyone would agree to pay for the joy of playing Solitaire 9 to 5, then all the world's problems would be solved.
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Old 06-03-2012, 16:43   #272   link
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Schrijnende getuigenissen over de depressie van de hardst geraakten onder ons:
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Andrew Schiff was sitting in a traffic jam in California this month after giving a speech at an investment conference about gold. He turned off the satellite radio, got out of the car and screamed a profanity.

“I’m not Zen at all, and when I’m freaking out about the situation, where I’m stuck like a rat in a trap on a highway with no way to get out, it’s very hard,” Schiff, director of marketing for broker-dealer Euro Pacific Capital Inc., said in an interview.

Schiff, 46, is facing another kind of jam this year: Paid a lower bonus, he said the $350,000 he earns, enough to put him in the country’s top 1 percent by income, doesn’t cover his family’s private-school tuition, a Kent, Connecticut, summer rental and the upgrade they would like from their 1,200-square- foot Brooklyn duplex.

“I feel stuck,” Schiff said. “The New York that I wanted to have is still just beyond my reach.”

The smaller bonus checks that hit accounts across the financial-services industry this month are making it difficult to maintain the lifestyles that Wall Street workers expect, according to interviews with bankers and their accountants, therapists, advisers and headhunters.

People who don’t have money don’t understand the stress,” said Alan Dlugash, a partner at accounting firm Marks Paneth & Shron LLP in New York who specializes in financial planning for the wealthy. “Could you imagine what it’s like to say I got three kids in private school, I have to think about pulling them out? How do you do that?

...

Executive-search veterans who work with hedge funds and banks make about $500,000 in good years, said Arbeeny, managing principal at New York-based CMF Partners LLC, declining to discuss specifics about his own income. He said he no longer goes on annual ski trips to Whistler (WB), Tahoe or Aspen.

...

Scheiner said he spends about $500 a month to park one of his two Audis in a garage and at least $7,500 a year each for memberships at the Trump National Golf Club in Westchester and a gun club in upstate New York. A labradoodle named Zelda and a rescued bichon frise, Duke, cost $17,000 a year, including food, health care, boarding and a daily dog-walker who charges $17 each per outing, he said.

Still, he sold two motorcycles he didn’t use and called his Porsche 911 Carrera 4S Cabriolet “the Volkswagen of supercars.

...

Scheiner pays $30,000 a year to be part of a New York-based peer-learning group for investors called Tiger 21. Founder Michael Sonnenfeldt said members, most with a net worth of at least $10 million, have been forced to “re-examine lots of assumptions about how grand their life would be.”

While they aren’t asking for sympathy, “at their level, in a different way but in the same way, the rug got pulled out,” said Sonnenfeldt, 56. “For many people of wealth, they’ve had a crushing setback as well.”

He described a feeling of “malaise” and a “paralysis that does not allow one to believe that generally things are going to get better,” listing geopolitical hot spots such as Iran and low interest rates that have been “artificially manipulated” by the Federal Reserve.

The malaise is shared by Schiff, the New York-based marketing director for Euro Pacific Capital, where his brother is CEO. His family rents the lower duplex of a brownstone in Cobble Hill, where his two children share a room. His 10-year- old daughter is a student at $32,000-a-year Poly Prep Country Day School in Brooklyn. His son, 7, will apply in a few years.

“I can’t imagine what I’m going to do,” Schiff said. “I’m crammed into 1,200 square feet. I don’t have a dishwasher. We do all our dishes by hand.”

He wants 1,800 square feet -- “a room for each kid, three bedrooms, maybe four,” he said. “Imagine four bedrooms. You have the luxury of a guest room, how crazy is that?”

The family rents a three-bedroom summer house in Connecticut and will go there again this year for one month instead of four. Schiff said he brings home less than $200,000 after taxes, health-insurance and 401(k) contributions. The closing costs, renovation and down payment on one of the $1.5 million 17-foot-wide row houses nearby, what he called “the low rung on the brownstone ladder,” would consume “every dime” of the family’s savings, he said.

I wouldn’t want to whine,” Schiff said. “All I want is the stuff that I always thought, growing up, that successful parents had.”

...

Dlugash, the accountant, said he’s spending more time talking with Wall Street clients about their expenses.

You don’t necessarily have to cut that -- but if you don’t cut that, then you’ve got to cut this,” he said. “They say, ‘But I can’t.’ And I say, ‘But you must.’”

One banker who owes Dlugash $20,000 gained the accountant’s sympathy despite his six-figure pay.

“If you’re making $50,000 and your salary gets down to $40,000 and you have to cut, it’s very severe to you,” Dlugash said. “But it’s no less severe to these other people with these big numbers.”

A Wall Street executive who made 10 times that amount and now has declining income along with a divorce, private school tuitions and elderly parents also suffers, he said.

These people never dreamed they’d be making $500,000 a year,” he said, “and dreamed even less that they’d be broke.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...heap-chex.html
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Old 07-03-2012, 00:11   #273   link
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Ehm. Als dat geen vals bericht is, is het einde van de wereld nabij. Ontdoe mij van die onzekerheid.
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Old 07-03-2012, 00:32   #274   link
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Bloomberg.com, nieuwssectie "Personal Finance". Drama with bubbles. Looks legit.
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Old 09-03-2012, 15:42   #275   link
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"Het keerpunt in de crisis is bereikt", aldus de Europese president. "We varen een kalmere zee tegemoet."

Van Rompuy heeft naar eigen zeggen geen bange uren achter de rug. "Ik had een groot vertrouwen in de situatie. Nu is de dreiging dat de eurozone uit elkaar zou vallen definitief geen issue meer."

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Old 09-03-2012, 15:53   #276   link
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Maar seffes wel ISDA die dit gaat aanzien als een default & dus CDS'en die ze mogen triggeren...

Ik ben eens curieus wat ze daarmee gaan aanvangen.
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Old 09-03-2012, 17:42   #277   link
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Originally Posted by Teki View Post
Maar seffes wel ISDA die dit gaat aanzien als een default & dus CDS'en die ze mogen triggeren...

Ik ben eens curieus wat ze daarmee gaan aanvangen.
Felix Salmon schrijft al een paar weken dat dat geen probleem is omdat het al ingecalculeerd zou moeten zijn:

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...greek-default/
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...aring-edition/
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...eeces-default/
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Old 09-03-2012, 18:00   #278   link
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Het klinkt misschien absurd, maar iis het zo moeilijk om in te denken dat extra belastingen ook op rijken een impact hebben?
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Old 09-03-2012, 18:06   #279   link
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Dat kan nooit meer dan een paar miljard EUR zijn, vermits geen enkele bank zich nog dat soort posities kan veroorloven, maar dan nog blijft het interessant om op te volgen welke draai ze er dit keer weer gaan aan geven.

Dit is gewoonweg een default, als dat geen credit event is stort het hele kaartenhuisje in elkaar & hangen Spanje & Italië ook.
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Old 09-03-2012, 18:19   #280   link
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Originally Posted by vAmP View Post
Het klinkt misschien absurd, maar iis het zo moeilijk om in te denken dat extra belastingen ook op rijken een impact hebben?
Over wat hebt ge het?
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