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Old 21-03-2012, 01:38   #301   link
Teki
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Originally Posted by Trojan View Post
Is het populistisch om te denken dat die amerikanen hypocriet zijn als ze dwepen met vrije markt en nu zulke maatregelen neemt?
Dat is maar het laatste in een lange rij van importheffingen. En zowat alle regio's hebben zich er in het verleden mee beziggehouden. Ook in de andere richting.
De WTO zal zich er wel eer mee kunnen amuseren!
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Old 21-03-2012, 01:41   #302   link
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De malaise van historici is vooral het besef dat mensen uiteindelijk steeds denken dat ze het wel weten net voor ze dezelfde faliekant verkeerde beslissingen maken als hun voorgangers zoveel jaren voordien.
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Old 21-03-2012, 02:09   #303   link
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Dat zou inderdaad wel eens pijnlijk kunnen worden... All is well blijkbaar, grote klanten wat paaien door extra service te willen verlenen en marktaandeel af te snoepen van concurrenten. Morgen dinerke met de collega's van BNP in't Zilte. Volgende week de koppenberg die is afgehuurd door dé big bad bank (afin blijkbaar heeft iedereen meer problemen met Goldman, terwijl MS pakken dieper in de problemen zat)

De feestjes en locaties zijn nog niet wat het is geweest, maar die invites komen ook weer stilaan binnen.

Les geleerd? Blijkbaar inderdaad niet.
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Old 21-03-2012, 11:09   #304   link
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Originally Posted by Teki View Post
Misschien wat historici zonder job die tijd hebben om te vergelijken met de grote depressie. Bedrijven liggen alvast niet wakker van euh 80 jaar geleden...
Is Paul Tudor Jones zo niet een pak rijker geworden?
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Old 21-03-2012, 15:06   #305   link
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Originally Posted by Teki View Post
Misschien wat historici zonder job die tijd hebben om te vergelijken met de grote depressie. Bedrijven liggen alvast niet wakker van euh 80 jaar geleden...
Bedrijven liggen niet wakker van een economische depressie?

Euh, ok.
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Old 21-03-2012, 15:11   #306   link
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't Kwam trouwens van Krugman die wel nog een job heeft voor zo ver ik weet.
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Old 22-03-2012, 20:13   #307   link
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Bedrijven liggen niet wakker van een economische depressie?

Euh, ok.

Van die uit 2008 wel, van die uit 1929 niet nee.

Last edited by Teki; 22-03-2012 at 20:16.
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Old 22-03-2012, 22:58   #308   link
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Nou, een geluk dat we in 1929 leven dan.
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Old 07-05-2012, 15:21   #309   link
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nu de politiek vrij stabiel is: waarom zakken de brandstofprijzen niet terug naar het niveau van vroeger?
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Old 07-05-2012, 15:39   #310   link
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bron http://www.petrolfed.be/dutch/cijfer...mumprijzen.htm



Kale (zonder BTW en accijns) prijs van benzine en diesel Nederland


raar dat de prijs opeens halveert en we het niet aan de pomp merken.
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Old 07-05-2012, 15:41   #311   link
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Old 07-05-2012, 15:44   #312   link
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nu de politiek vrij stabiel is: waarom zakken de brandstofprijzen niet terug naar het niveau van vroeger?
'k Zie niet echt in wat de brandstofprijzen met de stabiliteit van de politiek te maken hebben...?
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Old 07-05-2012, 15:48   #313   link
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Wat is vroeger?

in 2004 kostte een vat WTIcrude 30 USD/barrel, in 2008 ineens 150 USD maar toen was een EUR = 1.6 USD

Nu is dat 97 USD/barrel, maar met een exchange rate van 1.3

+ allerhande idiote clicquetsystemen, taxen, groene prul = een prijs van 1.4 EUR / liter aan de pomp.
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Old 07-05-2012, 15:50   #314   link
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dat is het excuus althans
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_to...ket_chronology
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Old 07-05-2012, 16:07   #315   link
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Hoe zit dat trouwens met Iran, en hun dreiging tot olie embargo, opeens zo stil geworden daar?
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Old 07-05-2012, 16:24   #316   link
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Hoe zit dat trouwens met Iran, en hun dreiging tot olie embargo, opeens zo stil geworden daar?
WRAPUP 2: U.S. keeps India waiting on Iran sanctions waiver - RTRS
07-May-2012 12:44
Clinton says India can use alternative oil suppliers Iranian trade delegation visits Delhi at same time Clinton expected to push for retail liberalisation

(Updates throughout)
By Andrew Quinn
KOLKATA, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaned harder on India on Monday to deepen cuts of Iranian oil imports, saying Washington may not make a decision on whether to exempt New Delhi from financial sanctions for another two months.
Clinton, on a three-day visit to India, said the United States was encouraged by the steps its ally had taken so far to reduce its reliance on Iranian oil but that "even more" action was needed.
The oil issue has become an irritant in ties between India and the United States. India is unwilling to be seen to be bowing to U.S. pressure and is reluctant to become too reliant on Saudi Arabia for its oil needs, which officials say privately would be strategically unwise.
The sanctions threaten to shut out Iranian oil importers from the U.S. financial system unless they make significant and continuing cuts to their crude purchases by an end-June deadline.
India is Iran's second-biggest crude customer, so it is crucial to the U.S. strategy of choking off the Iranian economy to force Tehran's leaders to curb their nuclear programme.
"We do not believe Iran will peacefully resolve this unless the pressure continues. We need India to be part of the international effort," Clinton told a townhall-style meeting in the eastern city of Kolkata.
Publicly, India has rejected Western sanctions but privately it has pushed local refiners to start cutting imports. India's refiners signed new yearly contracts with Iran running from April 1 and Reuters calculations suggest imports could plunge about 25 percent in 2012/2013.
Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in April that India had already substantially cut Iranian oil imports. But Clinton's comments on Monday suggested that Washington expected more action before it would grant the sanctions waiver.
The United States in March granted exemptions to Japan and 10 European Union nations. India and China, Iran's biggest crude importer, remain at risk.
Clinton held up Japan as an example, saying it had cut imports despite having suffered a devastating earthquake and tsunami that crippled its Fukushima nuclear reactor. Japan's cuts of between 15 and 22 percent were enough to get a waiver.
Washington has not stated specifically what cuts it expects from each country, only that they must be substantial.
"We think India, as a country that understands the importance of trying to use diplomacy to try to resolve these difficult threats, is certainly working toward lowering their purchase of Iranian oil," Clinton said.
"We commend the steps that they have taken thus far. We hope they will do even more," said Clinton, who was due to meet Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Delhi later on Monday.


ADEQUATE MARKET SUPPLY
Clinton noted that Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other oil-producing nations were supplying more crude to the markets to offset any loss of supply from Iran.
"If there were not the ability for India to go into the market and meet its needs we would understand that. But we believe there is adequate supply and that there are ways for India to continue to meet their energy requirements," she said.
She added that the United States would make a decision on whether to exempt India from the U.S. sanctions on Iran in "about two months from now".
An Indian official privy to the Indian talks with Iran and the United States had earlier expressed hope that Clinton might announce a waiver during her visit. The official said the government had done enough to secure the exemption.
A senior U.S. official said on Sunday that Carlos Pascual, the U.S. special envoy who has been negotiating with Iranian oil importers to cut their imports, would visit India in mid-May to discuss the issue.
Clinton said at the town-hall event that Iran posed a grave threat to the region and that Indians should not view it as a "far-off threat". Iran had dispatched "terrorist agents" to target Israelis and others in India, she said.
Clinton's trip coincides with a visit by a large Iranian trade delegation, which is in Delhi to discuss how the two countries can trade via a rupee mechanism set up to skirt sanctions. U.S. officials played down the importance of the Iranian visit.
Trade disputes and frequent U.S. complaints that it is difficult for American companies to do business in India have also strained ties. Ambiguously worded Indian proposals to crack down on tax evasion and tax indirect investments have also alarmed Washington and sown confusion among foreign investors.
Finance Minister Mukherjee announced in parliament on Monday that he would delay by one year, until fiscal 2013/2014, the introduction of the tax evasion measures.
In her meeting with Singh, Clinton was expected to push for the government to open up India's retail sector to foreign supermarkets such as Walmart - a major economic reform that has stalled and become emblematic of the policy paralysis gripping Singh's government.
Clinton held talks earlier with Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand chief minister of West Bengal and Singh's key ally in government, who has blocked the retail reform. Clinton said before meeting Banerjee that she planned to raise the issue but the chief minister said afterwards that it was not discussed.
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Old 07-05-2012, 16:26   #317   link
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A A
A A

UPDATE 7: Oil falls below $113 on Europe polls, weak US data CLc1 LCOc1 - RTRS
07-May-2012 15:33
European elections prompt re-think of euro risks Riskier assets fall broadly after euro zone elections Brent touches $110.34, lowest in more than three months U.S. crude plunges to $95.34, weakest since Dec. 20

(Adds comment para 11, updates prices)
By Zaida Espana
LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - Oil dropped to four-month lows below $113 a barrel on Monday, on worries that election results in Europe could thwart efforts to contain the euro zone debt crisis and after weak U.S. jobs data prompted concern about oil demand growth.
Oil prices, which have fallen for four straight sessions, suffered a sell-off on Friday after data showing U.S. nonfarm hiring slowed for a second month in a row in April, fuelling fears of falling demand in the world's top oil consumer.
This was compounded by the outcome of elections in France and Greece that raised concerns over their ability to implement further austerity measures seen as key to tackle the region's debt crisis.
"Optimists who recently believed that most of the risks concerning the euro were already 'priced in' are now discovering that this is by no means the case," said Commerzbank analysts Carsten Fritsch and Eugen Weinberg in a note.
"The results of the elections in Greece and France are evidence that voters are not willing to pay for the severe programmes of austerity measures.
"We believe that this will weigh on the euro, market sentiment and commodity prices for some time to come."
By 1249 GMT, Brent crude futures LCOc1 lost 32 cents to $112.86 a barrel, after touching a low of $110.34, the weakest since late January. The benchmark contract fell 2.5 percent on Friday.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down 91 cents at $97.58 a barrel, after dropping to as low as $95.34, its weakest since Dec. 20, 2011. U.S. oil fell by around 4 percent on Friday, its biggest drop since December, to break below $100 for the first time since February.
Brent is on track for a four-day loss of around 6 percent, its biggest since August last year, while U.S. crude is headed for a decline of over 8 percent in the same period, the largest such drop in over six months.
Although still in the red, oil prices pared some losses after plumbing earlier intra-day lows, with investors noting the recent sell-off has sparked buying interest from bargain-hunters.
Petromatrix's Olivier Jakob said that following last week's "severe correction" it was normal to see investors buying at the bottom of the market.
The weekend elections in Europe continued to provide focus, with French voters ousting Nicolas Sarkozy, an architect of bailouts for indebted countries and an advocate of austerity measures. (nL5E8G6A7)
"In France, the victory of Socialist candidate (Francois) Hollande will be closely watched by markets in particular, following his announcements of a turning away from austerity policies throughout his election campaign," JBC Energy consultants said in a note.
"Expectations on the outcome of the elections might have already contributed to the downwards slide in oil prices late last week," the JBC analysts added, "as concerns about the eurozone’s willingness to carry out full-hearted austerity measures lingered".
In Greece, consensus-building appeared challenging after the leader of the Democratic Left party Fotis Kouvelis, which secured 6.1 percent of the votes on Sunday's election, refused to join any pro-bailout coalition of the conservative New Democracy and Socialist PASOK parties. [IA8E8G6002]
Greek voters turned against the traditional parties at the urns as they protest against troika-sanctioned austerity measures, key to securing the country's financial future within the euro zone. (nL5E8G600O)
The election outcome in the euro zone saw some investors turning risk-averse. The U.S. dollar gained around 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY on Monday, weighing on dollar-denominated assets like oil and gold. GOL/
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For a 24-hr technical outlook on Brent:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/W...0705091712.jpg
For a 24-hr technical outlook on oil:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/W...0705084442.jpg
French polls: http://r.reuters.com/was36s
French election online: http://link.reuters.com/pyr27s
U.S. nonfarm payrolls: http://link.reuters.com/waq97s
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

SUPPLY FEARS EASE
Higher supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is pumping 32.3 million barrels per day (bpd) - 2.3 million bpd more than OPEC's target of 30 million bpd, also weighed on oil prices.
The extra OPEC oil has offset a decline in exports from Iran, which is facing stiffening Western sanctions over its disputed nuclear energy programme. (nL5E8G358A)
"We maintain that the path of least resistance for oil is down, especially as bearish catalysts continue to emerge," said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a report on Monday. "Lacklustre macroeconomic conditions, easing global tensions and bearish fundamentals have already started to weigh on oil prices."
Brent is now lower than it was in early November, when a U.N. report on Iran's nuclear programme stirred new action against Tehran.
"Iran remains a risk, but risks may be abating," the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
Iran and major powers resumed talks in mid-April in Istanbul after a gap of more than a year, during which time the United States and European Union stepped up efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions through new sanctions and an oil embargo which come into effect over the summer. They are to meet again on May 23 in Baghdad. (nL5E8G39E0)
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Old 07-05-2012, 16:45   #318   link
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maar toen was een EUR = 1.6 USD
maar met een exchange rate van 1.3
net eens gekeken naar de olieproductie per land, europa produceert zelf amper olie. vrij logisch dat we met zeer hoge prijzen zitten.
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Old 07-05-2012, 17:17   #319   link
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Originally Posted by Teus View Post
bron http://www.petrolfed.be/dutch/cijfer...mumprijzen.htm



Kale (zonder BTW en accijns) prijs van benzine en diesel Nederland


raar dat de prijs opeens halveert en we het niet aan de pomp merken.
Omdat de prijs om te beginnen nooit zo sterk gestegen is?
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Old 10-05-2012, 12:35   #320   link
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Get Ready for the Spanish Bailout

No one can pretend to know whether Spain is illiquid or insolvent without gauging the size of the black hole that is the country’s banking sector. The Spanish government is finally starting to do this: Bankia and other banks are reportedly set to receive a capital injection from Madrid. With the Spanish economy contracting sharply and with unemployment soaring, it was inevitable that the government had to bail out the banks. But this only deals with one piece of the puzzle. Without growth, the Spanish sovereign will need a bailout as well.

Spain’s credit boom peaked in 2008 when the supply of cheap, external finance began to fall sharply. Four years later, Spanish banks’ asset quality continues to plummet. The sector will require €100-250bn in recapitalisation later this year to maintain a 9 per cent core tier one capital ratio, the minimum stipulated by the European Banking Authority. In the meantime, there are concerns about the capacity and appetite of Spanish banks to support the sovereign, particularly amid rating downgrades and deposit withdrawals.

Ideally, a bailout for Spanish banks should come immediately and in the form of direct capital injections from the EU bailout funds. Germany remains staunchly opposed to this, as it would mean giving up the stick of conditionality and feeding Spain the funding carrot. Such an option is also resisted by the Spanish authorities as the EU taxpayer will effectively take over their banks.

Instead it looks like a bailout for Spanish banks has been postponed until the very last minute. The cost of a bank bailout would then be foisted on to the Spanish sovereign’s balance sheet.

Bank bailouts on this scale may well bring the Spanish state to its knees. If they don’t, Spain’s public and external debt positions will.

In order to stabilise its public debt levels after a bank recapitalisation, Spain would have to generate a swing in its public finances that is not only unrealistic, but also self-defeating. The tax hikes and spending cuts required would make the recession deeper and cause the primary balance to deteriorate.

In order to put itself on a path towards external debt sustainability, Spain would need to see a huge adjustment in its trade balance. In the short-run, a fall in domestic demand could quickly improve the trade balance. However, in the medium-term, Spain can only service its foreign debt if it finds balanced and sustainable growth, which requires a real-terms depreciation that will not occur unless the value of the euro falls sharply.

Anyone who has closely followed developments in the eurozone will be struck by déjà vu looking at Spain’s current predicament. The corrosiveness of banking sector uncertainty for investor confidence in Spain is reminiscent of Ireland in 2009 and 2010. Spain’s austerity-recession feedback loop is similar to the process that fed the economic contraction in Greece and Portugal.

And yet despite the clear signs of failure in the existing bailout countries, the EU looks set to pursue an unchanged plan in Spain. But the crucial difference between Spain and the bailout countries is size. If things go wrong in Greece, Portugal and Ireland, a second bailout is affordable. But there can only be one roll of the dice for a country as large as Spain.

A bailout package would buy some time for Spain, but time will only help if it is used to generate economic growth. By making private claims on the sovereign junior to the claims of the troika (European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) even a bailout risks reducing the chances of it regaining market access. Moreover, with economic indicators showing Spain sinking further into recession, a turnround in the country’s economic performance would require a significant shift in policy: monetary easing by the ECB, a weaker euro, fiscal stimulus in the core, less front-loaded austerity in the periphery, more international firewalls and debt mutualisation.

The only way for there to be a happy ending in Spain is if action is taken swiftly in Brussels, Frankfurt and other European capitals. But that is not likely to happen. The eurozone periphery and Spanish crisis look like a slow motion train wreck.

http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/...anish-bailout/
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